Tuesday, May 14, 2019

Math and the Electoral College

Whenever liberals don't get the election results they want, they scream about the electoral college.  They want to get rid of it, and pack the Supreme Court, while screaming how it's conservatives who are trashing constitutional values.  Consistency isn't a strong suit of the left, that's for sure.

Anyway, Math With Bad Drawings provides some information about the Electoral College, along with some math problems that even a social studies teacher should be able to follow :-)
ELECTORS PER CAPITA: WHAT DOES IT TELL US?
The formula for your state’s number of Electors is roughly this: Population/700,000 + 2, rounded to the nearest whole number. Assume that the winner within each state gets all of its Electors.
1. Compute the number of electors for Alaska (737,000 people), South Dakota (882,000 people), Mississippi (2,986,000 people), and Alabama (4,887,000 people).
2. Now, compute the number of electors per capita for Alaska, South Dakota, Mississippi, and Alabama.
3. Under this system, which sorts of states will have the most Electors per capita?
4. Which will have the fewest?
5. Who do you think is more powerful – voters in small states, voters in big ones, or does it not matter? Explain.
Let’s imagine the country were made of 2 states: Megastate, with a population of 1.4 million, and the State of Moe, with a single resident named Moe.
6. How many Electors does each state receive?
7. How many Electors per capita does each state have?
8. Whose vote has a better chance of swinging the election: Moe’s, or a voter’s in Megastate? Think carefully, and explain!
9. What does this two-state scenario tell us about the usefulness of “Electors per capita” as a measure of power?
10. What is another way we could measure a voter’s power?

SYSTEMS OF APPORTIONMENT: DO THEY MATTER?
Currently, 48 out of 50 states apportion their Electors on an all-or-nothing basis: the winner of the statewide vote gets all of the Electors.
Imagine if states switched to a proportional system, whereby if you win X% of the vote in a state, you get X% of the Electors (rounded to the nearest whole number).
1. Suppose that Minnesota votes 68% for A, 30% for B, and 2% for C. How should it apportion its 10 electors? Explain.
2. Suppose that Minnesota votes 53% for A, 44% for B, and 3% for C. How should it apportion its 10 electors? Explain.
3. How would the effect of this change be different for big states like California (with 55 electors) than for small states like Vermont (with 3 electors)?
4. Imagine going to Hawaii (which usually votes Democrat) and asking a Democrat and a Republican whether they support this change. What do you think they would say, and why?
Imagine if states switched to a district-by-district system. For example, if a state has 5 electors, it breaks its voters into 5 districts, and assigns an elector to the winner of each.
5. Suppose that in Massachusetts, this has no effect on the electors. What does that tell us about Massachusetts? Be specific.
6. Suppose that in New Hampshire, this has a big effect: instead of winning all 4 electors, the Democrat now wins only 2. What does this tell us about New Hampshire? Be specific.
7. Suppose a Republican and a Democrat in New Hampshire are each asked to divide the state into districts. Do you think they’d make similar divisions? Why or why not?

4 comments:

Wooster's Company said...

As a government teacher, I just taught this and my Students are doing this investigation, with a few tweeks, this was Monday's lesson plan. They have to write and defend their choice of to keep, abolish or change the way the electoral College works. It was nice to see this this morning

Ben Orlin said...

Thanks for sharing the questions I wrote!

To clarify, the U.S. transitioning to a popular vote doesn't require the elimination of the Electoral College. Rather, states can simply commit their electors to the winner of the national popular vote, instead of the statewide popular vote.

Darren said...

Ben,

I understand how the Electoral College works. For those who want to eliminate it and go to a popular vote, I recommend the following:
1) Determine the winner in each *congressional* district, and allot an elector to the winner of each congressional district.
2) Allot the two "senator" electors to the winner of the popular vote within the state.
That seems a more reasonable way to divvy up electors than "winner take all", at least to me.

And I love your work :-)

PeggyU said...

Thank for sharing that, Darren. It's been a while since I visited that blog, but it is one of my favorite reads as well. :)