Monday, August 30, 2021

Data, Not Emotion

The complete study is here:

4 comments:

Auntie Ann said...

Just ran the numbers for Los Angeles County. They don't give a good percentage or numbers of kids who have died of covid, so I used the California number to grab an overestimate: 32 kids in CA have died of it, and you can assume nearly every single one of them had serious pre-existing conditions. My calculations below assume every single one of those CA kids were in Los Angeles County.

Data below also uses only the numbers from the last month, so focuses on Delta:

CFR from LA County published data on 7/31 and 8/31/21:

Age 0-17 = 0.0052% (again, overestimating by assuming all CA kids deaths are LAC)
Age 18-29 = 0.022%
Age 30-49 = 0.11%
Age 50-64 = 0.59%
Age 65+ = 3.77%
All = 0.53%

IFR, using CDC's multipliers of 4.2 cases for every one reported, and 1.3 deaths for every one reported (which is certainly overcounting deaths with, not deaths from covid.)

0-17 = 0.0016%
Age 18-29 = 0.007%
Age 30-49 = 0.034%
Age 50-64 = 0.18%
Age 65+ = 1.17%
All = 0.16% -- That's one tenth of the number everyone likes to quote, and is Delta specific.

Sources:

corona-virus.la/data

cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/COVID-19/COVID-19-Cases-by-Age-Group.aspx

cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html

LeftCoastRef said...

Auntie Ann - May I have permission to copy and paste your comments on social media? I will attribute it as "...an acquaintance of mine shared this."
This is good stuff.

Auntie Ann said...

Sure!

PeggyU said...

I would like to see two additional entries to this chart: "Being hospitalized due to COVID-19, unvaccinated"; and "Dying of COVID-19, unvaccinated". Why are those missing?