Monday, November 27, 2006

Interesting View of America's "Natural" Economic Allies

They're not the continental Europeans.


Carson said...

I think this guy is smokin the crack pipe. I think history plays too big a role in who our allies are that our natural allies are whomever we were at war with and against 6o years ago.

allen said...

I'm not quite ready to call China our "natural" economic ally but they've been making some unquestionable, though inconsistent and spasmodic, moves in the direction of a more open, democratic society. On the economic front China's a Wild West show.

My estimation is that China's leadership is hoping/trying to keep the economic seperated from the political and they're having increasingly difficult time doing it. That's both a danger and an opportunity. Rich people have aspirations and the means to achieve them and when the demands of the leadership are in conflict with the wishes of the increasingly wealthy Chinese population there'll be trouble.

That inevitable disatisfaction may lead to a civil war and/or the rise of war lords which would be disasterous for not just the Chinese but for all of China's trading partners.

If the transition from totalitarian dictatorship to representative democracy (I won't cross my fingers just yet) can be managed without large-scale violence then China'll evolve into that "natural" trading partner since they'll have a strong incentive to suppress the growth of the bureaucratic intereference in society. They'll have just shed total bureaucratice control of society so the growth of something they've just gotten rid of will be tough. Thread-bare bureaucracy/regulatory state = economic vigor.

Darren said...

The linked post didn't consider China such an ally, either.