Until today I'd never heard of this rule:
We’ve all found ourselves in this situation, whether we’re considering job offers, buying a new car, or dating new people. When it comes to love, how many people should you date before settling down? It’s a problem that bridges mathematics and psychology, and it’s got a name: the optimal stopping problem.
...How long do you spend sampling options to give the optimum chances of a successful final decision? How many frogs must you kiss to secure your chances of getting a prince?
Mathematicians have given us an answer: 37%. The basic idea is that, if you need to make a decision from 100 different options, you should sample and discard (or hold off on) the first 37. The 37% rule is not some mindless, automatic thing. It’s a calibration period during which you identify what works and what does not. From the rejected 37%, we choose the best and keep that information in our heads moving forward. If any subsequent options beat that benchmark standard, then you should stick with that option to get the best ultimate outcome.
Throw some pop psychology into the article and it's an intriguing read.
Formerly known by the now-non-PC moniker "secretary problem": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secretary_problem
ReplyDeleteI skimmed both of your links, and I didn't see this mentioned although it's probably in there somewhere and I missed it, but the 37% comes from 1/e.
I'd certainly like to know about the derivation of this number!
ReplyDeleteAh yes, the Sultan's Suitor problem. Sadly, the problem is we don't know the total number of potential options. This makes it impossible to know where the 37% cutoff is.
ReplyDeleteLooking forward to updates on your investigation of this. :)
ReplyDeleteThe Wikipedia link above does a good job of explaining.
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