Do stay-at-home orders help reduce 'rona mortality? A study published in Nature provides some data:
Abstract
A recent mathematical model has suggested that staying at home did not play a dominant role in reducing COVID-19 transmission. The second wave of cases in Europe, in regions that were considered as COVID-19 controlled, may raise some concerns. Our objective was to assess the association between staying at home (%) and the reduction/increase in the number of deaths due to COVID-19 in several regions in the world. In this ecological study, data from www.google.com/covid19/mobility/, ourworldindata.org and covid.saude.gov.br were combined. Countries with > 100 deaths and with a Healthcare Access and Quality Index of ≥ 67 were included. Data were preprocessed and analyzed using the difference between number of deaths/million between 2 regions and the difference between the percentage of staying at home. The analysis was performed using linear regression with special attention to residual analysis. After preprocessing the data, 87 regions around the world were included, yielding 3741 pairwise comparisons for linear regression analysis. Only 63 (1.6%) comparisons were significant. With our results, we were not able to explain if COVID-19 mortality is reduced by staying at home in ~ 98% of the comparisons after epidemiological weeks 9 to 34.
This is science, not science!
This data is based on cell phone location data.
ReplyDeleteThe people in my area who are spreading covid do not use cell phones. Or for that matter, practice hygiene such as washing hands before eating/meal prep. They do not stay home, and they gather in very large groups...even for the funerals. Its a fascinating look into medieval thinking as well as 1900s (pre-germ theory) mind - we had a glimpse in 2019 as measles spread amongst their group. One can easily understand why babies were thrown in wells in the not-so-distant past.