I'm always running numbers of some kind in my head.
For example, when I travel, I constantly try to estimate my arrival time--to the minute. Yes, I update my predictions based on changes in conditions, like encountering unexpected lane closures or accidents or something, but that should be allowed. I enjoy the game of seeing how close I can get, and if my prediction is more accurate than my GPS's.
I also like to estimate how much gas I'll need to fill up the Battlestar. It's got a 26-gallon tank, and the analog dial gas gauge isn't as precise as I'd like it to be. Given those two conditions, I give myself an admittedly generous +/- 1/2 gallon for my guesstimate, and I almost always choose a whole number figure. On those rare occasions when I don't choose a whole number, it's because I can't choose between two numbers so I choose the half-gallon in the middle.
Today when I rolled up to the gas pump I estimated 18 gallons. I put the nozzle in, started pumping, and flipped the tab on the nozzle so that it would automatically shut off when filled.
17.999 gallons.
Should've bought a lottery ticket.
Just out of curiosity have you run the numbers on COVID? I've been doing basic math and according to my blunt use of math find the lack of numbers on total tests given to be a huge missing factor. What I came up with is out of the total population it's a 5/10000th of a chance of dying of COVID based on current number. Using the same number it's about a 4.5% chance of contracting COVID and a >3% chance of confirmed COVID cases ending in mortality. Maybe I'm wrong--but I notice the evening news casts, regardless of network or channel-never say the number of survivors, the number of negative cases or the total number of tests given. In Texas we now have spikes caused by a backload of positive tests which may have occurred five months ago and do not reflect current infection numbers. Yet Democrats and "experts" tell us to "trust the science" even when the speculations and laws are guided by errant data. This is Global Warming all over again. I'm sick of wearing a mask and refuse to do so outside. Nobody I know and nobody that knows people I know have come down with this-even my 91 year old Mom who is in a senior facility. I do know a local regional hospital has no COVID patients, but four with pulmonary staph infections-far more deadly-from wearing dirty masks. That's from a friend who's a head nurse.
ReplyDeleteI don't even know which numbers to trust.
ReplyDelete