Mathematical Models

It's important to remember that mathematical models do not exist to explain why reality works the way it does.  They exist to estimate and predict what will happen under a given set of conditions.  If the model does not estimate and predict accurately, it's a bad model--it's not a good model of the process being studied.  Reality doesn't care that your model should be right, reality doesn't have to alter itself to fit your model; it's up to the mathematician/scientist to create a theory, or formula, or model that reflects reality:

Dr. John Ioannidis became a world-leading scientist by exposing bad science. But the COVID-19 pandemic could prove to be his biggest challenge yet.

Ioannidis, the C.F. Rehnborg Chair in Disease Prevention at Stanford University, has come under fire in recent months for his opposition to state-ordered lockdowns, which he says could cause social harms well beyond their presumed benefits. But he doesn’t appear to be backing down.

In a wide-ranging interview with Greek Reporter published over the weekend, Ioannidis said emerging data support his prediction that lockdowns would have wide-ranging social consequences and that the mathematical models on which the lockdowns were based were horribly flawed.

As I wrote in a previous post, there's a lot of crap out there that's been "gussied up with a veneer of math".  Many tremendously bad decisions have been made in recent months based on bad data and bad models.

Though not yet certain, the COVID-19 pandemic may well turn out to be another example of central planning gone wrong.

As I previously noted, it’s a sad irony that many of the greatest disasters in modern history—from Stalin’s "kolkhoz" collective farming system to Mao’s Great Leap Forward and beyond—are the result of central planners trying to improve the lot of humanity through coercive action.

During the coronavirus pandemic, experts may have unintentionally brought about one of the most serious human disasters in modern history by removing choice from individuals with superior local knowledge.

And some decry the president for not mandating shutdowns nationwide.

But back to Dr. Ioannidis.  I've heard that name before, but where?  Oh, that's right, here.